Preseason Rankings
Northern Colorado
Big Sky
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating-0.5#166
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace62.8#314
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.5#186
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.0#166
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.5% 19.9% 10.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 14.0 14.7
.500 or above 68.8% 73.0% 43.6%
.500 or above in Conference 79.2% 81.3% 66.3%
Conference Champion 18.8% 20.2% 10.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.9% 1.4% 4.6%
First Four0.6% 0.6% 0.9%
First Round18.3% 19.7% 9.6%
Second Round1.9% 2.1% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.6% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Southeast Missouri St. (Neutral) - 85.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 21 - 3
Quad 33 - 43 - 7
Quad 411 - 314 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 27, 2020 325   Southeast Missouri St. W 74-63 86%    
  Dec 05, 2020 38   @ Arizona L 62-76 10%    
  Dec 12, 2020 112   @ Colorado St. L 68-76 25%    
  Dec 14, 2020 50   @ Colorado L 62-75 12%    
  Dec 16, 2020 305   @ Denver W 73-68 67%    
  Dec 22, 2020 299   Idaho St. W 74-64 82%    
  Dec 23, 2020 299   Idaho St. W 74-64 82%    
  Jan 02, 2021 140   @ Montana L 65-70 34%    
  Jan 04, 2021 140   @ Montana L 65-70 33%    
  Jan 07, 2021 209   Montana St. W 70-64 69%    
  Jan 09, 2021 209   Montana St. W 70-64 69%    
  Jan 14, 2021 322   @ Idaho W 72-64 74%    
  Jan 16, 2021 322   @ Idaho W 72-64 74%    
  Jan 21, 2021 132   Eastern Washington W 75-74 52%    
  Jan 23, 2021 132   Eastern Washington W 75-74 52%    
  Jan 28, 2021 266   @ Northern Arizona W 69-66 59%    
  Jan 30, 2021 266   Northern Arizona W 72-63 76%    
  Feb 04, 2021 192   @ Southern Utah L 68-69 45%    
  Feb 06, 2021 192   @ Southern Utah L 68-69 45%    
  Feb 11, 2021 230   Sacramento St. W 66-59 72%    
  Feb 13, 2021 230   @ Sacramento St. W 63-62 53%    
  Feb 25, 2021 252   Portland St. W 78-70 75%    
  Feb 27, 2021 252   Portland St. W 78-70 75%    
  Mar 04, 2021 256   @ Weber St. W 69-67 57%    
  Mar 06, 2021 256   @ Weber St. W 69-67 57%    
Projected Record 14 - 11 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.0 4.4 4.6 3.5 1.6 0.4 18.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.3 5.2 5.2 3.3 1.0 0.1 17.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.7 3.4 5.3 3.9 1.6 0.3 0.0 15.3 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 3.3 4.6 3.0 0.6 0.0 12.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.0 4.1 2.0 0.3 0.0 10.3 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 2.5 3.1 1.2 0.2 7.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.1 2.5 1.1 0.1 6.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 1.7 1.9 0.9 0.1 5.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.4 2.3 3.7 5.3 6.7 8.1 9.4 10.8 11.1 10.8 9.8 7.9 5.6 3.6 1.6 0.4 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
19-1 100.0% 1.6    1.6 0.0
18-2 97.3% 3.5    3.2 0.3
17-3 81.8% 4.6    3.6 1.0 0.0
16-4 55.2% 4.4    2.6 1.7 0.2 0.0
15-5 30.2% 3.0    1.2 1.3 0.4 0.1
14-6 9.6% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 18.8% 18.8 12.8 4.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.4% 100.0% 100.0% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
19-1 1.6% 100.0% 100.0% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0
18-2 3.6% 97.4% 97.3% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.4 0.4 0.0 0.1 1.0%
17-3 5.6% 81.8% 81.8% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.0 1.2 0.1 1.0 0.1%
16-4 7.9% 55.2% 55.2% 14.5 0.0 0.5 1.6 1.7 0.6 3.6
15-5 9.8% 29.5% 29.5% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 0.9 6.9
14-6 10.8% 8.2% 8.2% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 9.9
13-7 11.1% 1.3% 1.3% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.9
12-8 10.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.8
11-9 9.4% 9.4
10-10 8.1% 8.1
9-11 6.7% 6.7
8-12 5.3% 5.3
7-13 3.7% 3.7
6-14 2.3% 2.3
5-15 1.4% 1.4
4-16 0.8% 0.8
3-17 0.5% 0.5
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 18.5% 18.5% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.1 3.8 5.9 4.9 2.3 81.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 3.6 19.5 19.5 19.5 41.5